Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

EE

Excelerate Energy, Inc. (EE)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Strong quarter with broad-based beats: Revenue $315.1m, Diluted EPS $0.46, Adjusted EBITDA $100.4m; management raised FY25 Adj. EBITDA guidance to $345–$365m (from $340–$360m) on operating outperformance .
  • Results exceeded S&P Global consensus: EPS $0.49 adjusted vs $0.40*; revenue $315.1m vs $207.9m*; Adj. EBITDA $100.4m vs $95.5m*; sequential strength driven by lower OpEx/SG&A and higher gas sales margin .
  • Balance sheet and funding progress de-risk Jamaica acquisition: $619.5m cash, revolver upsized to $500m upon close; completed $212m equity offering and $800m 8% notes due 2030 to fund the deal and term loan repayment .
  • Strategic momentum: credit ratings initiated (S&P BB+, Fitch BB); operational reliability >99.9%; newbuild FSRU Hull 3407 on track for mid-2026; Jamaica platform expected to be EPS/cash flow accretive upon close .

Note: Asterisked values are from S&P Global consensus.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Raised FY25 Adj. EBITDA guidance to $345–$365m on a strong Q1 run-rate and cost control, excluding Jamaica contribution .
  • Commercial/strategic execution: equity and debt raised to fund Jamaica; credit ratings established; revolver maturity extended and capacity increased to $500m contingent on closing .
  • Operations: >99.9% reliability; CEO: “We delivered $100 million of adjusted EBITDA and $56 million of adjusted net income… driven primarily by our core regasification infrastructure business” .

What Went Wrong

  • Expense timing benefited Q1; maintenance/OpEx expected to catch up in Q2–Q4, implying some back-half cadence normalization .
  • Continued reliance on transactional gas sales for revenue uplift introduces volume/timing variability (though deals are fixed-margin/back-to-back); Q1 included Atlantic Basin deal and three cargoes (2 Asia, 1 Europe) .
  • Jamaica acquisition still pending close (Q2 target); integration and supply alignment require execution through closing .

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs prior quarters (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($m)$193.4 $274.6 $315.1
Operating Income ($m)$59.7 $60.2 $65.7
Net Income ($m)$45.5 $46.1 $52.1
Diluted EPS ($)$0.35 $0.40 $0.46
Adjusted Net Income ($m)——$55.6
Adjusted EPS (diluted) ($)—$0.40 $0.49
Adjusted EBITDA ($m)$92.3 $91.6 $100.4

Notes: Q1 non-GAAP adds back $3.7m transition/transaction costs related to Jamaica; +$0.03 adjusted EPS impact . Preliminary Q1 guidance indicated Adj. EBITDA $96–$101m; actual $100.4m near top end .

Segment revenue mix (oldest → newest)

Revenue MixQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
FSRU & Terminal Services ($m)$150.1 $154.0 $148.4
Gas Sales ($m)$43.3 $120.5 $166.7
Total Revenues ($m)$193.4 $274.6 $315.1

Drivers: Q1 sequential growth driven by timing of vessel OpEx/maintenance, lower SG&A, and higher direct gas sales margin (Atlantic Basin program plus 3 cargoes) .

KPIs and Balance Sheet Liquidity

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($m)$537.5 $619.5
Undrawn Revolver Availability ($m)$327.2 $350.0 (all available)
Revolver Amendment—Maturity to Mar 2029; capacity to $500m (contingent on Jamaica close and term loan payoff)
Total Debt incl. finance leases (3/31/25)—$677m
Dividend per share (quarterly)$0.06 (Mar 27 payment) $0.06 (Jun 5 payment)
Operational Reliability—>99.9% in Q1
Credit Ratings—S&P BB+; Fitch BB

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA ($m)FY 2025$340–$360 $345–$365 Raised
Maintenance Capex ($m)FY 2025$60–$70 $60–$70 Maintained
Committed Growth Capital ($m)FY 2025$65–$75 $65–$75 Maintained
Dividend (quarterly)2025$0.06 $0.06 (Q2 payable Jun 5) Maintained

Management reiterated that guidance excludes any incremental contribution from the pending Jamaica acquisition .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Jamaica integrated LNG & power acquisitionNot discussed in Q3/Q4 press releases; announced Mar-2025 Accretive EPS/cash flow; on-track to close Q2; funding completed via $212m equity and $800m 8% notes; revolver upsized New positive catalyst
LNG supply/gas sales programsMedium-term Atlantic Basin LNG purchase/sales agreements signed in Q3 2024 Continued Atlantic Basin deal; 3 cargoes (2 Asia, 1 Europe); fixed-margin/back-to-back Increasing contribution
Newbuild FSRU (Hull 3407)—On track for mid-2026 delivery; launch milestone in June; strong customer interest Steady progress
Macro/tariffs exposure—Business “essentially tariff-proof”; take-or-pay base underpins guidance resilience Supportive tailwind
Vietnam growthStrategic agreement with PTSC (Q3 2024) Two MOUs with PetroVietnam subsidiaries (PV Gas, PTSC); momentum continues Advancing
Capital markets/ratings—S&P BB+, Fitch BB; financing completed for Jamaica Improved access/cost

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “We delivered $100 million of adjusted EBITDA and $56 million of adjusted net income… driven primarily by the strong performance of our core regasification infrastructure business.”
  • CEO on strategy: Jamaica “will be immediately accretive to EPS and significantly enhance our operating cash flow… provides us with a contract portfolio of mostly investment-grade counterparties… and a new pipeline of growth opportunities in Jamaica and the Atlantic Basin.”
  • CFO: “We reported adjusted net income of $56 million… Adjusted EBITDA… up about 10% versus the prior quarter… driven by timing of vessel operating and maintenance activities as well as lower SG&A.”
  • CFO on guidance/financing: Raised FY25 Adj. EBITDA range to $345–$365m (ex-Jamaica); completed $212m equity offering and closed $800m 8% notes due 2030; pro forma net leverage ~2.5x pre-Jamaica, falling further post-close .
  • Operations: “Operational reliability above 99.9%” in Q1; continued focus on “best-in-class operations” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Jamaica closing steps: routine consents/deliverables; integration planning on track; growth optionality with modest-capex projects post-close .
  • LNG supply alignment: VG volumes (~0.7 mtpa) dovetail with Jamaica (~0.6 mtpa) over ~20 years; interim third-party supply arranged; fixed-margin philosophy remains .
  • Gas sales cadence: Q1 driven by Atlantic Basin deal and three cargoes; all structured back-to-back/fixed margin .
  • Capex/leverage: Sufficient dry powder after equity/notes; Hull 3407 ~$200m capex due mid-2026; pro forma net leverage ~2.5x pre-Jamaica, trending below post-close .
  • Expense timing: Some Q1 OpEx/maintenance deferred to later quarters; drydocks planned (Exemplar in Q3, Explorer in Q4) .
  • Macro/tariffs: Business “essentially tariff-proof” given downstream infrastructure focus .
  • Vietnam: Two MOUs with PV subsidiaries; methodical progress; targeting deal space .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 actuals vs S&P Global Wall Street consensus:

MetricConsensus*Actual
Diluted EPS (Adjusted)$0.40*$0.49
Revenue ($m)$207.9*$315.1
Adjusted EBITDA ($m)$95.5*$100.4
  • Beat/miss drivers: Lower OpEx/SG&A and stronger direct gas sales margin drove outperformance; management raised FY25 guidance as a result .
  • Coverage depth: EPS (# est.) = 1; revenue (# est.) = 4 for Q1 2025; forward quarters show modest coverage reflecting emerging coverage post-IPO and evolving scope*.

Note: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Positive inflection in run-rate earnings: stronger Q1 execution plus raised FY25 Adj. EBITDA guidance (ex-Jamaica) points to resilient core earnings from take-or-pay regas portfolio .
  • Clear de-risking of the Jamaica transaction: funding secured (equity + $800m notes), revolver upsized to $500m upon close, ratings established—reducing financing and balance sheet uncertainty .
  • Revenue mix broadening: gas sales contribution meaningful and fixed-margin; continued Atlantic Basin activity provides upside optionality without commodity beta .
  • Watch expense cadence: Q1 benefited from timing; expect maintenance/OpEx catch-up and planned drydocks; quarterly EBITDA may be lumpy within an intact annual guide .
  • Near-term catalysts: Jamaica close and integration updates; Hull 3407 launch milestone (June) and commercialization progress; Vietnam MOU conversion; conference appearances .
  • Risk checks: transaction closing/consents, integration execution, and maintaining fixed-margin discipline in gas sales; regulatory/geopolitical backdrop manageable given downstream focus and contract mix .
  • Trading lens: Raised guidance plus visible funding and BB+/BB ratings are supportive for multiple; near-term share reaction likely tied to Jamaica close certainty and any incremental disclosure on Hull 3407 commercialization .

Appendix: Additional Context and Disclosures

  • Preliminary Q1 ranges (Apr 21) were Income before taxes $52–$59m and Adj. EBITDA $96–$101m; final reported figures were near the top end (Adj. EBITDA $100.4m) .
  • Dividend maintained at $0.06 per share; Q2 payment scheduled for June 5, 2025 .
  • Non-GAAP adjustments: $3.7m transition/transaction expense added back in Q1; +$0.03 to adjusted EPS .

Sourcing: Company press releases and filings, Q1 2025 earnings call transcript, and S&P Global consensus where indicated.